CoreLogic Reports January Home Prices Increased by 4.4 Percent Year Over Year

  • Twelve-month home-price growth rate was slowest since August 2012
  • HPI Forecast indicates annual average home price to increase 3.4
    percent from 2018 to 2019
  • Since peaking at 6.6 percent last April, annual home price gains
    have declined or held steady each month

IRVINE, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property
information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today
released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI
Forecast for January 2019, which shows home prices rose both
year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by
4.4 percent year over year from January 2018. On a month-over-month
basis, prices increased by 0.1 percent in January 2019. (December
2018
data was revised. Revisions with public records data are
standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly
released public data to provide updated results each month.)


Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the 2019 annual
average home price will increase 3.4 percent above the 2018 annual
average. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to
decrease by 0.9 percent from January 2019 to February 2019. The
CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using
the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from
state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of
owner-occupied households for each state.

“The spike in mortgage interest rates last fall chilled buyer activity
and led to a slowdown in home sales and price growth,” said Dr. Frank
Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Fixed-rate mortgage rates have
dropped 0.6 percentage points since November 2018 and today are lower
than they were a year ago. With interest rates at this level, we expect
a solid home-buying season this spring.”

According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an
analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan
areas based on housing stock, 35 percent of metropolitan areas have an
overvalued housing market as of January 2019. The MCI analysis
categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value
or overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable
levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals (such as
disposable income). Additionally, as of January 2019, 27 percent of the
top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 38 percent were at
value.

When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 40
percent were overvalued, 18 percent were undervalued and 42 percent were
at value in January 2019. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing
market as one in which home prices are at least 10 percent above the
long-term, sustainable level. An undervalued housing market is one in
which home prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.

“The slowing growth in home prices was inevitable in many respects as
buyers pull back in the face of higher borrowing and ownership
costs,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As we head
into 2019, we can expect continued strong employment growth and rising
incomes which could support a reacceleration in home-price appreciation
later this year.”

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring February 2019 data, will
be issued on Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 8:00 a.m. ET.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI is built on
industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate
databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales
transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the
first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic
HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by
market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing
the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for
single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The
indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to
signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for
multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type,
price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and
distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national
level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are
based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines
the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per
capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum,
mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the
unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family
Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined
Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital
Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of
home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at
state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The
forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence
interval with a +/- 2 percent margin of error for the index.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the
primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be
resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including
publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company
without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used
for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as
coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with
broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first
reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts,
graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on
screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the
data, contact Alyson Austin at newsmedia@corelogic.com
or Allyse Sanchez at corelogic@ink-co.com.
Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission
of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are
compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary
analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information,
analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined
data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5
billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage
of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy,
location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets
CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance,
capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to
clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory
and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and
manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk.
Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America,
Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI
Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All
other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contacts

Media:
Alyson Austin
Corporate Communications
949-214-1414
newsmedia@corelogic.com

Allyse Sanchez
INK Communications
925-548-2535
corelogic@ink-co.com

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